Tag: Labor Demand Forecasting

Healthcare workforce management is not an easy task. To provide high-quality care, it’s essential to have that right balance of staff to patients — but it’s difficult to get that equation right with all the potential, unexpected changes that can come your way. 

Luckily, labor forecasting can help you get ahead of these problems and plan ideal staffing across your practice, but numerous factors can cause a forecast to go awry.

Let’s examine some of the most critical healthcare workforce forecasting factors. 

5 factors that can throw off healthcare workforce forecasting

Here are five factors that can affect forecasting for the healthcare industry. We discuss general labor demand forecasting concerns in another article. 

1. Seasonality

Seasonality in healthcare can mean a variety of things — the most common is flu and cold season — but there is more to seasonality than that. It can also include a clinic closing down (temporarily or permanently), natural disasters, or any other form of tragedy. 

Seasonality problems lead to stressed-out staff, longer patient waiting times, and poor patient experience. 

How to improve seasonality problems

• Prepare for what you can: As mentioned before, cold and flu season is a recurring event. If past data shows an overwhelming increase in patients at a certain time of year, create plans to meet that need ahead of time. 
• Hiring temporary help: Temporary staffing in healthcare can be a great solution. While temporary workers receive higher hourly wages, organizations don’t have to pay any benefits, so you can save money in the long run while ensuring proper patient care and  reducing staff burnout. 
• Cross-train employees: Create initiatives that cross-train staff in various areas of work. While some areas require formal education, others can be handled with training. When things get busy, cross-trained employees can help fill the gaps. 
• Appreciate your employees: While this isn’t a direct solution when things get busy, it’s easy to forget how hard everyone is working. You’d be surprised at the difference a simple “thank you” can make during stressful times. 

2. Staff-to-patient ratio

A key performance indicator (KPI) in healthcare workforce management, the staff-to-patient ratio shows how many care staff are available per patient. It measures a patient’s safety and experience and is also a good way to measure resource management. 

How to improve staff-to-patient ratio

The best way to improve your staff-to-patient ratio is to better organize and use your resources, which a labor forecasting tool can help with. 

3. Availability of talent and the hiring process

The talent pool in the healthcare industry is severely limited. It’s predicted that by 2026, there will be a healthcare labor shortage of 3.2 million workers in the U.S. In 2021, 40% of hospitals had accelerated hiring to meet demands, 36% had normal hiring, and 21% had cautious hiring. 

How to improve your hiring practices

• Upskill current employees: Sometimes, you don’t need to hire outside employees. Plenty of employees want the chance to advance their careers. 
• Create better job descriptions: You need to grab the attention of healthcare talent. You can do that by tailoring your job descriptions for what you’re looking for and adding information they’re looking for (like hours, pay, and perks).
• Have a good relationship with rejected applicants: Even though you don’t hire them this round, treat them kindly and keep their info on hand for next time.
• Speed up the hiring process: While it’s essential to be thorough in the hiring process, especially in healthcare, taking too long can be a detriment. Figure out ways to speed up the process — such as automating some tasks.

4. Staying within budget

At healthcare clinics and care facilities, labor costs can fluctuate when overtime and holiday pay become part of the equation. It’s vital to properly plan for those extra expenses and be appropriately staffed to minimize those costs as much as possible.

How to stay within budget

• Pay attention to seasonality: By properly forecasting the workforce you’ll need during busy seasons, you can anticipate costs and put affordable staffing solutions in place.
• Reorganize your budget: It might be time to look at your budget again and see if it can be improved.

5. Turnover and retirement rates

Turnover and retirement rates are a problem within healthcare workforce management because of the limited talent pool already discussed. For registered nurses (RNs), the turnover rate is 18.4%, and almost 60% of Gen X physicians plan to retire by age 60. 

Organizations need to have labor forecasting plans to handle when employees are lost through retirement or quitting.

How to improve plans for turnover and retirement

• Prevent burnout: 46% of health workers felt burned out often in 2022. Inflexible work schedules, lack of breaks, and low pay lead to burnout. See how your organizations can mitigate these problems. 
• Offer career advancement opportunities: Organizations can retain employees when they have easy access to advancement opportunities. 
• Plan ahead: Keep up with recruitment and start planning a replacement as soon as you learn an employee is leaving. 

Simplify your workforce management for healthcare employees 

As you can see, healthcare workforce management is much more than just scheduling teams; it’s about preparing for a variety of scenarios. This can be almost impossible without help — which is where Deputy comes in.

Our software can streamline how you approach staffing in healthcare, from figuring out budgets and scheduling to achieving ideal staff coverage across your practice. See how our labor forecasting tool can improve your healthcare organization.

The world of hospitality is fast-paced, keeping workforce demands in constant flux. Labor forecasting looks ahead at hotel, hospitality, and restaurant staffing needs, but the industry’s unpredictable nature introduces countless variables that can throw projections off. 

Overcoming these challenges with informed labor forecasting models is the only way to control wage costs and consistently deliver excellent customer experiences. 

Read on to learn more about these key factors to optimize hospitality staff coverage. 

6 factors that disrupt labor forecasting in the restaurant and hospitality industries

The hospitality and food service industries experience unique labor forecasting challenges: One minute, there’s high customer traffic, while the next, it’s a ghost town. A large party books and then cancels. An employee calls in sick for their shift. These changes, big and small, are hard to predict, but with a proper labor forecasting model, your business can persist through the ups and downs. 

We address forecasting challenges in different shift-based sectors here. The six key factors below play a specific role in labor forecasting for hospitality and restaurant staffing. 

1. Anticipated customer demand

Many companies in the service industry are small businesses. About 90% of restaurants in the United States have fewer than 50 employees on their payroll, underscoring the need for balanced staffing to meet customer needs efficiently. 

Foot traffic and sales forecasts drive staffing levels, but customer demand is unpredictable in the hospitality industry. Unexpected tour groups or weather conditions impact guest volume. These unanticipated fluctuations lead to over- or understaffing issues that affect your staff and your guests’ experience.

Improve customer demand forecasts

• Monitor point-of-sale data and reservation logs: You can use historical data to identify spikes, lulls, and average patterns in sales and foot traffic.
• Collaborate for greater insight: Start conversations between operations, location managers, and frontline staff to create better forecasting strategies based on different perspectives. 
• Use analytics tools to make the most of your data: Input relevant data into the right forecasting tools to take advantage of finely tuned algorithms to make better, data-driven predictions. 

2. Seasonality and special events

Some fluctuations can be easier to predict. During peak periods, there is a guaranteed need for higher staffing levels.

Peak times, like holidays, special events, and tourist seasons, are the bread and butter of hospitality businesses. Slower periods, such as off-seasons and times when school is in session, create a significant contrast in overall staffing requirements compared to other times of the year. 

Prepare for seasonal and special event surges

• Analyze weather and seasonal trends: Note how these factors affect customer behavior and prep contingency plans for times of unexpected demand. 
• Pay attention to special circumstances: Stay up to date on local events and special events that would boost foot traffic volumes. 
• Equip your staff with tools and training: Cross-train employees to help them adapt to changing demands, and make sure they have what they need to succeed.

3. Employee skills and roles

Different roles require specific skills and scheduling ratios. With restaurant staffing, for example, servers and hosts may be easier to hire than chefs. Accurate forecasting must consider specialized skills and training requirements to keep up with staffing needs. 

Account for employee skills and roles

Accurate restaurant or hotel forecasting models need to keep in mind: 

• The ideal ratio between front- and back-of-house staff at any time
• Specific roles that require cross-training or additional skill sets
• Adequate leadership coverage with enough managers and supervisors for each shift
• Plans for backfilling crucial roles when key personnel are absent 

Advanced forecasting models can help you identify customer surges, but they also factor in potential staffing risks or losses. Considering that 27% of restaurant and food service employees in the US are students, these models can take into account events like upcoming graduations when you may lose critical workers. 

4. Availability and shift preferences

A 2024 survey found that just 57% of service workers were happy in their jobs. After wages, respondents cited flexibility as the second most important factor in their job satisfaction.

Many hospitality businesses run every day of the year. Even with this notoriously rigid scheduling environment, determining when and how often staff can work makes your workforce happier and more stable.

Consider staff availability and preferences

It’s not always possible to make scheduling accommodations, but building some flexibility into your labor forecasting allows both you and your staff to find balance. To achieve that balance: 

• Ask staff about their availability and preferences when they’re hired.
• Use systems and software to factor this information into your forecasts. 
• Find a scheduling system that benefits both employees and overall business operations. 
• Keep monitoring patterns and preferences over time and make adjustments as needed. 

5. Labor laws and compliance

Hospitality jobs can be incredibly difficult. Regular breaks and predictive scheduling are not only important for employee satisfaction; labor laws and regulations apply as well. Failure to comply can result in significant repercussions. 

Comply with laws and regulations

Proper hospitality and restaurant forecasting can help prevent businesses from inadvertently scheduling staff in ways that lead to non-compliance with labor laws. To make it easier to manage compliance, utilize resources such as: 

• Government websites and legal advisories for your jurisdiction
• Proper job classifications and benefit packages for employees
• Accessible, well-planned schedules set as far in advance as possible
• Timers and concretely scheduled break times for employees
• Labor forecasting and employee scheduling software with smart alerts and guardrails that help reduce compliance risks 

6. Labor expenses and business goals

To maintain profitability, it’s important to make investments that stay within your budget while balancing staffing needs. It’s equally important to invest in employee satisfaction and customer experiences. 

Focus on labor investments that achieve your goals

Employee scheduling and wages are directly tied to your bottom line in multiple ways. View these factors as investments in business performance. 

Happier staff deliver better experiences — which pays dividends for your business. Researchers found that Taco Bell stores with low turnover rates experienced double sales and 55% higher profits compared to stores with high turnover. 

Improve business performance by:

• Considering different variables: Remember, many things impact profitability. Prioritize the well-being of your employees and customers when making financial decisions. 
• Investing in your employees: When employees are paid better, they are more motivated to provide better service. Implement concrete tip strategies and consider higher wages. 
• Leaning on forecasting tools: Forecasting helps allocate resources, ensuring a balance between wages and operational expenses by tracking key performance indicators (KPIs) like sales per labor hour.

Simplify labor forecasting for your hospitality or restaurant staffing 

Accurate labor forecasting is integral to a company’s profitability. Concerned with potential losses, businesses might make rash staffing decisions in times of pressure, like over- or under-scheduling their teams. These decisions can make or break the level of customer service provided at any given time. 

Staff management is a proactive process that accounts for frequently changing variables. This is where an automated labor forecasting solution can help. 

Whether you’d like support in optimizing schedules or hitting service benchmarks, our labor forecasting tools can help simplify staffing decisions to maintain customer satisfaction and control labor costs. Let Deputy improve your restaurant, hotel, or hospitality operations today. 

For retailers, balancing staff coverage with payroll budgets is an endless challenge. Inaccurate forecasts lead to heightened costs or understaffing issues. Smart retail labor forecasting practices can help calculate an ideal balance between customer service excellence and employee satisfaction. Here’s what you need to know.

The task of accurate retail labor forecasting

More than 25% of all jobs in the United States are related to the retail sector. With such a large percentage of the workforce connected to retail, accurate labor forecasting plays a big role in work satisfaction for millions of workers.

Unlike short-term retail scheduling, which creates daily and weekly work schedules, labor forecasting is a long-term strategic process. It factors in big-picture variables to develop a workforce plan that aligns staffing needs with labor demands over time. 

At its core, the retail labor forecasting process focuses on one logistical goal: to balance excellent customer service with profitability. Accurate models can mean the difference between a balanced workforce and costly imbalances, such as: 

• Overstaffing that bleeds profit and expenses
• Understaffing that damages the retail brand

For cost-conscious retailers, this can translate to thousands of dollars in savings. 

Realistically, managing it all manually is a task very few retailers can afford to risk — guesswork can go wrong for many different reasons. This is why informed retail labor forecasting is so crucial. 

5 factors to consider for retail labor forecasting

We stress the importance of accurate labor forecasting for shift work industries. These five key factors are tailored to help retail businesses make more informed workforce planning decisions. 

1. Customer traffic and sales forecasts

Anticipated sales volumes and customer foot traffic patterns are the foundation for retail labor forecasting. A detailed understanding of historical sales data helps:

• Identify notable trends in transactions and revenue.
• Compare current sales with previous periods.
• Reveal any recent dropping or underperforming sales.

Factor this into forecasting

Don’t overlook labor needs for non-revenue generating yet crucial tasks like restocking shelves, creating displays, and maintaining back-of-house processes. These efforts are just as important for a smooth customer experience but often go unaccounted for in labor forecasting. 

2. Seasonality

Depending on the industry, retailers experience up to 38% increased holiday sales, while others may have regular peaks at different times of the year. During peak sales seasons, the demand for retail staff increases to handle these higher transaction volumes. 

The retail calendar sometimes revolves around seasonal sales drivers. Holidays, back-to-school periods, and seasonal product availability can make or break retail performance. Proper accounting for these peaks and valleys is necessary for labor forecasting, but there is more to consider than just seasonal sales volume. 

Factor this into forecasting

Sales depend on the quality of the customer experience. Meeting customer needs in peak seasons means delivering exceptional service. Ask yourself: 

• What are the most important seasons and events for sales?
• When should I hire additional staff ahead of these periods?
• How long will it take to appropriately train staff to prepare for these sales windows?

A labor forecasting tool can help you determine the answers. When optimal hiring and training timelines are in place, you can make the most of your retail scheduling system to keep sufficient staff on hand, ready to deliver outstanding service during high-stake sales seasons.

3. Employee skills and roles

Not all retail work is created equal. Management, full-time sales associates, and part-time staff all play different retail roles. Retail labor forecasting must account for the specific employee skills, responsibilities, and scheduling requirements for different staff positions. 

Factor this into forecasting

Labor forecasting should consider: 

• The right mix of managers and support staff at any time
• Employee skill gaps or roles that may need backfilling months out
• Employee performance metrics that impact retail efficiency

Retail labor forecasting can identify when key workers may leave their roles, such as at the end or beginning of a school year, and when to schedule the most skilled employees to reap the biggest benefits for your bottom line. 

4. Employee availability and shift preferences

Although the target for many companies is a 10% employee turnover rate, the US national average exceeded 40% in 2023. Retail businesses report even higher rates of turnover at 65%.

Retail environments are not known for employee schedule flexibility, but factoring in staff availability and shift preferences whenever possible can bring enormous benefits. Even small accommodations can increase staff morale. In turn, this reduces costly turnover and absenteeism that throw off labor forecasts. 

Factor this into forecasting

Retail employee availability and preferences data is valuable for immediate staffing needs, but forecasting tools are key to keeping employees happy and the business stable in the long run. 

Consider availability and preferences by: 

1. Asking employees about their preferred working hours or schedule constraints
2. Using retail employee scheduling software that integrates this data automatically
3. Offering flexible shift options, like split shifts or rotating schedules
4. Cross-training employees in different roles during busy periods
5. Maintaining open communication about availability and preferences
6. Reviewing and adjusting data to identify gaps and areas for improvement

This can help reduce employee churn and streamline the forecasting process. Staffing ebbs and flows are easier to predict in businesses with low turnover rates compared to high-churn environments.

5. Labor laws

Compliance with labor laws is non-negotiable. Retailers want to keep costs low while keeping adequate staffing levels but must adhere to laws and regulations such as:

• Meal and rest breaks  
• Overtime requirements 
• Consecutive shift limits 

Failure to account for these labor regulations can lead to penalties and fines. 

Factor this into forecasting

Laws can vary by local jurisdiction. For multi-location retailers, this can make managing compliance a challenge without robust tools. Relevant retail labor forecasting models, however, can help apply rules and regulations around: 

• Breaks and meal periods
• Total hours worked
• Consecutive shifts
• Employee data (age, clearance, etc.)

This process helps avoid costly overscheduling that can result in non-compliant practices. 

Simplify your retail labor demand forecasting process

Even for small teams, accounting for all the variables of retail labor forecasting is a big task. It can be difficult to balance compliance and expenses while avoiding employee burnout and delivering great customer service. 

Don’t try to tackle demand forecasting manually. Instead, let automated retail labor forecasting do the heavy lifting. 

Leverage the power of data-driven insights with a smart labor forecasting system. Learn how Deputy’s smart scheduling can help. 

Labor forecasting can be the difference between growth or going out of business. Done right, it predicts the perfect number of employees needed for a business day. If done poorly, it leads to overspending, stressed employees, and unhappy customers.

 

Labor demand forecasting is especially important in industries that rely on shift work. Learn how to forecast labor demand while considering seven key factors that affect staffing plans in shift-based industries. 

7 factors that affect forecasting planning

Here are seven common labor forecasting factors and the industries most affected by them. 

1. Anticipated foot traffic 

Anticipated foot traffic is the estimated number of people coming through a business. The higher the traffic, the higher the revenue. Company leaders can gather anticipated foot traffic numbers using previous data. Examples include door clickers, video footage, and POS statistics.

 

Most affected industries: This factor is crucial in retail and food service. 

 

Level of predictability: Anticipated foot traffic is relatively predictable. Fluctuations may occur around seasonal and weather changes. 

 

How much can you influence it? Ways to influence anticipated foot traffic include hosting in-store events and sales. 

2. Occupancy levels 

Occupancy levels refer to the number of people a business can serve with its resources. Examples include the number of tables and seats in a restaurant or beds in healthcare facilities. 

 

Most affected industries: Occupancy levels affect hospitality, healthcare, and food service. 

Level of predictability: Occupancy levels are fairly predictable. The most significant changes occur around seasonal shifts. For example, sick seasons occur in healthcare. Summers have more travelers, impacting hospitality.

How much can you influence it? Occupancy levels can change in response to advertising, weather, and available competitor options. 

3. Seasonality and weather

Seasonality and weather involve business and consumer behavior changes due to external factors. For example, nightlife dies down when it’s cold outside. Activity-based businesses see more traffic in the summer when school is out.

Most affected industries: All industries can experience these effects.

Level of predictability: Historical data makes predicting seasonality easier. 

How much can you influence it? You can’t influence this factor since it will happen no matter your actions — your best bet is to prepare for seasonality well in advance and plan for ways weather may affect your operations. 

4. Employee availability and preferences

Acknowledging when employees can or want to work is crucial. Doing so helps a shift-based business run smoothly and ensures employee (and customer) satisfaction.

Most affected industries: This factor affects the hospitality, food service, and retail sectors. 

 

Level of predictability: The level of predictability of this factor depends on you. Communicating with employees about availability and preferences improves predictability. By contrast, a lack of communication creates unpredictability. 

 

How much can you influence it? You set the schedule, so you control how much you pay attention to this factor. Knowing your employees’ preferences allows you to calculate staffing needs that accommodate them. 

5. Labor laws

Labor laws are rules and regulations that all businesses must follow. They influence wages, working hours, and breaks. 

 

Most affected industries: Labor laws affect all industries. 

 

Level of predictability: They have a high level of predictability. 

 

How much can you influence it? Aside from advocating for laws to change, you can’t influence labor laws. Rather, you must know which laws apply to your business and workers and ensure you have dependable processes and systems for managing them. 

6. Budget constraints

Budget constraints occur when businesses encounter challenges related to financial problems. Your business may need more staff but lacks the funds to pay them. This issue is a budget constraint.

Most affected industries: All industries can experience budget constraints.

 

Level of predictability: Budget constraints are highly predictable. However, something unexpected can happen and throw off a budget. An unexpected need for overtime is one example. 

 

How much can you influence it? You can influence budget constraints by monitoring your budget and proactively managing elements like overtime. You can also positively influence it through actions like reducing staffing during slow periods. 

7. Absenteeism and turnover rates

Absenteeism happens when people don’t show up for work. Turnover rates reflect how often employees resign or get fired from their positions.

 

Most affected industries: These factors frequently affect retail, food service, and hospitality.

 

Level of predictability: Absenteeism is fairly unpredictable. Employees could be absent for many reasons, often without warning. Turnover rates are more predictable if you have historical data to assess.

 

How much can you influence it? You can’t influence how often people have emergencies, but you can establish clear policies for getting shifts covered and enforce them when necessary. Many aspects can influence turnover rates, which you should discuss with employees. 

The most important labor demand factors by industry

Here are the most common industries affected by the factors above:

Healthcare

This industry encompasses all aspects of providing care to individuals. Proper forecasting is crucial to keep patients safe while preventing employee burnout. Some factors that heavily influence the healthcare industry include:

• Absenteeism: Patient safety is at risk if a healthcare worker calls out and you can’t find a replacement.
• Turnover: Workers may leave a job in response to burnout.
• Availability: Within a healthcare facility, shifts must be filled by people with specific training and experience, which complicates how you find coverage for the needed roles during operating hours (which may be 24/7). 
• Labor laws: In healthcare, it’s easy to lose track of time and miss breaks or allow workers to go into overtime.
• Occupancy levels: Increased need for care requires additional staff to support the load.  

Retail 

Retail stores sell a variety of products, from clothing to groceries. Factors like turnover and absenteeism are common in the retail sector. Other factors that play into labor forecasting in retail are:

 

• Anticipated foot traffic: A store may have an influx of customers or workers with nothing to do.
• Seasonality: Some holidays encourage more shopping than others. Examples include Black Friday, Christmas, and Valentine’s Day.
• Weather: Weather can affect anticipated traffic. It may influence whether employees can get to work safely as well. 
• Labor laws: It’s difficult to juggle breaks for every worker within a single retail store.

Hospitality

Hospitality has a wide range of businesses under its umbrella. These include hotels, spas, and tourist attractions. Some of the labor forecasting influences for organizations in this industry include:

• Occupancy levels: Hospitality services have an occupancy level, but you also need to consider demand for services and pace of work as you forecast labor demand.
• Seasonality: Hospitality is especially vulnerable to seasonality. Depending on the season, a business can become overwhelmed or be completely empty. 
• Budget constraints: Hospitality budgets need to encompass a variety of factors. Each factor can affect how much money goes towards labor.
• Labor laws: Employees who are busy with guests may forget to take breaks.

Food service 

Like retail, food service is often an industry where newcomers to the workforce start. This factor can lead to high turnover and absenteeism. Other factors can also affect the food service staff planning, such as:

 

• Anticipated foot traffic: Knowing how to calculate staffing needs while balancing busy mealtimes and downtime is challenging. 
• Weather: Weather plays a major role in anticipated traffic. It can also impact whether employees can come in.
• Labor laws: Labor laws affect all food service businesses. Employees must take regular breaks.

Call centers

Call centers often intersect with multiple industries. Employees provide customer support and handle inquiries. Labor forecasting in a call center must consider the effects of:

 

• Availability: Staffing a call center often means filling odd-hour shifts in order to provide round-the-clock customer service.
• Occupancy levels: A business needs space for its employees. A lack of space impacts whether employees can handle the workload.
• Turnover: Working in a call center can be stressful and repetitive, leading to higher turnover rates. 

Entertainment

Entertainment is an umbrella term for any business providing fun or recreation, like bowling alleys, theme parks, and movie theaters. Factors influencing the entertainment industry include: 

• Occupancy levels: Entertainment businesses must consider how long customers spend at their business and how quickly you can serve them. A lack of employees could lead to impatient customers and a poor reputation.
• Turnover: The entertainment industry is susceptible to employee turnover because employees can burn out on customer service, physical demands of the job, and night and weekend hours. 
• Seasonality: Some businesses shut down or alter hours for seasonal fluctuations. Employee disruptions are often a result.

Manufacturing and logistics

Manufacturing and logistics are challenging industries for employees and company leaders. The physical demands are well known. Factors outside an organization’s control can derail the schedule. For example, late deliveries of essential materials can create issues.

This industry can also experience the impacts of:

• Labor laws: Additional laws may influence businesses in this market, such as workplace safety accommodations.
• Availability: Lack of employee availability can completely ruin a production schedule. Poor scheduling can create a snowball effect for all team members.
• Budget constraints: This factor can make getting things done on time difficult. 
• Weather: If employees can’t work or deliveries don’t come because of weather, it’s nearly impossible to recover lost time. 

Labor forecasting doesn’t have to be difficult

Running a business is already hard enough — make labor forecasting easier with Deputy. Our software can streamline the forecasting process across various industries. All pertinent information is in one place, including budgets, scheduling, and timesheets. 

 

Learn how Deputy can make labor demand forecasting simple today.